Finally a new strong Middle East triangle

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Recent events and diplomatic activity before and after the Israeli attack on the Gaza "freedom flotilla" have delineated a new powerful regional triangle at the expense of an old Arab one.

The rapprochement between Iran, Turkey and Syria is creating a new regional axis that, for all practical purposes, could replace the diminished Arab triangle of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria and transform the region in the process.

The visits of the Iranian and Syrian presidents to Turkey this week have underlined a new sense of solidarity and cooperation. The new trio could break up the US imposed moderate-extremist division of the region and instead introduce a diverse, hard to isolate new axis that is fundamentally opposed to the Israeli occupation and committed to breaking the siege of Gaza.

Each of these Middle East players bring important strategic assets to the table: Iran is an energy rich Gulf power with an important nuclear card in hand; Turkey is an emerging Euro-Asian power with NATO membership; and Syria is an Arab nation with influence in Lebanon, which could as an indispensable partner in the Arab trio, legitimise the new triangle in Arab eyes.
The three countries have maintained an open border policy which could eventually create a market of more than 150 million people.

The Old Triangle. Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Syria's disagreement with Egypt over the Palestinian issue and its tensions with Saudi Arabia over the Iranian issue have - among other factors - served to diminish the so-called Arab triangle that has exercised an important influence on Arab policies for decades. However, Israeli rejection of their peace initiative and US wars and interventions after 9/11 have left the Arab trio in disarray and the Arabs in a mess.

The New Trio is capable of torpedoing any foreign intervention in the region and could have enough strategic weight to advance aspects of their common agenda. 

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What would happen if, for example, the US and Europe step up the pressure on Turkey to choose between the two camps? Or if Saudi Arabia and Egypt offered Turkey a central role in regional affairs as part of a new 'Sunni' axis, supported by the US and Europe?

No doubt much of this depends on the 'Middle East superpower', the US.

After all, Barack Obama has proved to be a pragmatic rather than ideological president who is more focused on relations with China than with Britain; with India and Brazil than with France.

He might, therefore, focus on Turkey's new clout and its leverage with Syria, Palestine and even Iran to advance US interests in the region, instead of banking on Egypt, Saudi Arabia or even Israel - who all suffer from huge political deficits.

As Turkey, Syria and Iran join their efforts and strengthen their ties, they are breaking up a Western imposed division of the region into extremists and moderates, rejectionists and accommodators of Western policies - the bedrock of US-Israeli policy - and forcing world powers to change their Middle East assumptions and perhaps strategies.

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